But it has been a bellwether since 1993, voting with the party that has formed government ever since. She is one of the Liberal cabinet ministers who might have the most to worry about â she won her seat by just 3.5 percentage points in 2015. But the Conservatives captured just 6.5 per cent of the vote here in 2015, suggesting the contest will again be a two-horse race between Whalen and Harris. Will Philpott retain enough of the support that narrowly won her the seat in 2015 to be re-elected as an Independent? My sense is everywhere except Cabbagetown and maybe the Village is going heavily for the NDP. But if the Conservatives are able to break through somewhere in the Greater Montreal area, Mirabel might be where they do it. Many NDP signs across the riding combined with a non-existent PC campaign (their campaign office was in darkness at 7pm on a Monday night) that it only makes sense to switch this riding from Liberal to at least TCTC. New Democrats have held the area without interruption since 2005. The Liberals, Bloc and Conservatives are all covetously eyeing those seats â and all three parties have the potential for gains. The Conservatives won it by a wide margin in 2011 but lost it by just six points in 2015 to the Liberalsâ Marwan Tabbara. While that could make this riding low-hanging fruit for the Liberals, the Conservatives also have high hopes in former Trois-RiviÃ¨res mayor Yves LÃ©vesque. Davenport, a densely-populated riding where nearly half of commuters take public transit to work, is a key target for the NDP in downtown Toronto, where the party was shut out in 2015. But the retirement of some incumbent MPs could flip some traditional strongholds from Liberal red to Conservative blue. Safe NDP call! In 1924, the riding was broken into Toronto East Centre, Toronto West Centre and Toronto South.. A riding covering much the same area was created in 1933 named "Rosedale" after the wealthy neighbourhood of Rosedale. Fast-growing and full of young families and commuters, it is perhaps the region of the country where pocketbook issues matter most. The Liberals won in 2015 thanks to their support in the Lower Mainland portion of the riding, but they took few polls in the Interior portion. The third-best riding in the country for Greens over the last three elections, EsquimaltâSaanichâSooke is a top target for the party on Vancouver Island. Because of its history and how it ranks on the list of winnable seats for both parties, the party that wins here has a very good chance of taking power in Ottawa. Centre Toronto riding was first created in 1872 from portions of West Toronto and East Toronto.In 1903, the name was changed to Toronto Centre. The previous riding results are practically irrelevant given the drastic shifts in this election. The future of the Peopleâs Party of Canada likely depends on Maxime Bernierâs ability to win re-election in the riding heâs made into one of the safest Conservative seats in the country since his first win in 2006. Former MPP George Smitherman, who left provincial politics to join the race to become Toronto's next mayor, held the riding for 10 years. The Liberals won it back in 2015 with Andrew Leslie, but the retired lieutenant-general is not running for re-election. The Liberals havenât won in KamloopsâThompsonâCariboo since 1974, but they believe they can win in 2019 thanks to Terry Lake, a former provincial cabinet minister and MLA for the riding from 2009 to 2017. The NDP holds seats in both the northern parts of these two provinces and in the urban centres of Winnipeg, Saskatoon and Regina. Ãric Grenier The old downtown City of Toronto ridings will be a wash of orange to prevent the provincial risk of a blue majority. 23/05/2018: Joe 188.8.131.52: Smallest urban riding with so many condo-dwellers, polling shows NDP flying in the old city and Toronto Centre should soon go orange too. York Centre By-Election. LaverdiÃ¨re was a giant-killer when she took down Duceppe in this sovereignist fortress, but the election of Guilbault would demonstrate how Quebecâs politics are shifting toward a focus on the climate question rather than the "national question". Burlington had gone Conservative in the three previous elections and, with the sole exception of the 2014 vote, has elected the Ontario PCs in every election since 1943 at the provincial level. The NDP is now far ahead in inner Toronto and progressive Liberals are flocking en masse to the NDP. Theyâre also targeting diverse ridings where they think Jagmeet Singh, the countryâs first visible-minority leader of a major party, could attract new voters to the NDP. Newly minted Green Party Leader Annamie Paul, is also vying for the seat. That puts the seat high on the target list for the Liberals, Bloc QuÃ©bÃ©cois and Conservatives. The Conservatives are banking on the local profile of Richard Lehoux, a former mayor, to bring the seat back into the Conservative fold. 2019 Federal Campaign Polls Date : Polling firm Method Sample : LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ PPC: Leader 2019-10-20 Nanos TEL 800 32 33 21 6 7 2 Con +1 2019-10-20 Mainstreet IVR 2032 32 32 18 6 8 3 Égalité/Tie 2019-10-19 EKOS IVR 1994 34 30 18 8 5 4 Lib +4 2019-10-19 Research Co. INT 957 32 31 19 8 7 2 Lib +1 2019-10-19 Ipsos The party lost in its bid for power under Tom Mulcair in 2015 and now â under leader Jagmeet Singh â the New Democrats are struggling. I think this was incorrectly called. But if the Greens are casting about more widely, they should look to ridings where their provincial cousins have had success. But the NDPâs Robert Aubin only held on to his seat by less than a thousand votes in 2015, when the Liberals finished a close second. The federal Conservatives, who havenât won here since 1984, want to do the same. And it wasnât even close â Schreiner pulled twice the votes of his nearest rival. Support for the Green Party is strongest on Vancouver Island and thatâs where it has its best hopes for gains. Chang is a labour union professional who is a candidate for the New Democratic Party of Canada (NDP) in the Toronto Centre riding. One Liberal cabinet minister who could be sunk by the purchase of the Trans Mountain pipeline is Jonathan Wilkinson, who held the fisheries and oceans portofolio. Will it be the decisive issue when they cast their ballots? When Cambridge swings, it tends to swing for good. After scoring provincial breakthroughs in Atlantic Canada and a federal byelection win on Vancouver Island, the Greens are poised for what could be their best election ever. Annamie Paul placed second in the Oct. 26 byelection in the Toronto Centre riding, but increased the Green share of the vote by 26 points over last year's general election. This is an easy NDP gain. With Glen Murray not running here anymore, coupled with the fact that Liberals are not polling so great, this one could go NDP. I've lived in Church and Wellesley before, and despite this riding having a very active NDP and some areas where the party does quite well, I expect this to hold as Liberal. But the GTA alone wonât be enough to put the party in power: Conservatives also will need to defeat Liberals in Atlantic Canada, southwestern and eastern Ontario and in the suburbs of Western Canadian cities like Winnipeg and Vancouver. If the Liberals are hoping to make a gain in KamloopsâThompsonâCariboo, theyâre also hoping to repeat their upset victory in KelownaâLake Country. Considering its history, this riding â which has voted blue at the provincial level in every election since 1923 â should be high on the list of Conservative pick-ups. The Liberals, Conservatives and Bloc are all hoping to benefit from the collapse of the NDP in Quebec â and those hopes intersect in Saint-HyacintheâBagot. The NDPâs fundraising has been anemic and its support in the polls has slipped. coast â where the pipeline ends and the oil tankers begin. Hehr was given a seat at the cabinet table; he later lost it over allegations of sexual harassment, but he remains one of the Liberalsâ best fundraisers and will put up a stiff fight against the Conservativesâ Greg McLean. But after losing most of its seats in the province in 2015, does the party have a near-term future in Quebec? Still an NDP pick up while unlikely is possible and if that happens the Liberals will likely be reduced to single digits in seats. With more seats than most provinces, the Greater Toronto Area decides elections. One of the ridings with the youngest voters in the country, ChurchillâKeewatinook Aski has the most residents who claim First Nations identity (70.3 per cent) of any riding in Canada. Hamilton is usually friendly territory for New Democrats. Liberal MLA Gordie Hogg, the Conservatives and their predecessor parties had held sway in the riding uninterrupted for 43 years. Heâll be up against Richmond Hillâs former Conservative MP Costas Menegakis, who was defeated when he opted to run in a neighbouring riding in the last election. Marci Ien, the Liberal Candidate for the Toronto Centre riding is facing a tough challenge from new Green leader Annamie Paul. Held by Conservative Cathy McLeod since 2008, the riding was a relatively close three-way race in 2015, with the Conservatives taking 35 per cent of the vote and NDP and Liberals taking about 30 per cent apiece. As the central figure in that story, Wilson-Raybould has raised her personal profile enough to give her a chance to pull off the rare feat of election as an Independent candidate. Voter turnout was higher than average for byelections: 25.6 per cent in York Centre and 30.9 per cent in Toronto Centre. If Scheer can pull that off, heâs probably going to be the next prime minister. The Conservativesâ support in the riding dropped only marginally last time and the Liberals do not have an incumbent. Lisa Raitt was one of the Conservative MPs in the GTA who withstood the Liberal surge, winning by a margin of five points in 2015. Morris hasn't proven compelling enough a campaigner to hold out against the NDP wave. Marci Ien, the Liberal Candidate for the Toronto Centre riding, is pictured on Thursday October 22, 2020. The party is hoping to regain some of the seats it lost in the region four years ago, but it is facing an uphill climb. If the Liberals are banking on holding any seats in Alberta, Edmonton Centre should be right at the top of the list. With one-fourth of commuters in their cars for at least an hour a day, this is one riding where the debate over the carbon tax could prove decisive. In 2015, the Liberals scored an upset with their first seats in Calgary since 1968. His performance will be a test of the Conservative strategy of banking on high-profile local candidates to make inroads in francophone, nationalist ridings like Trois-RiviÃ¨res â which voted for the CAQ in last yearâs provincial election, as well as Mario Dumontâs ADQ in its short-lived 2007 breakthrough. Of the 2020 Canadian federal by-elections, this is the more competitive, but will it be competitive? INCREDIBLY strong showing by Green Party of Canada leader Annamie Paul in what was supposed to be a "safe" Liberal riding that Morneau won with 57.4% via @ElectionsCan_E #cdnpoli #TorontoCentre This is Annamie Paul’s message to all residents of Toronto Centre, as … could be key to the NDP having a good election. Calling this for the NDP. This time, Mario Beaulieu, the Bloc incumbent and a former leader of the party, is hoping to hold off not only the Liberals but also the Conservatives, who have a local mayor on the ballot. Jody Wilson-Raybould and Jane Philpott will try to make the case for more non-partisanship in their bids to be re-elected as Independents, while Maxime Bernier will make the case that the voters that have backed him as a Conservative should follow him as leader of the Peopleâs Party. Instead, it has opted for nationalist candidates in nine of the last 10 elections â Brian Mulroneyâs PCs in the 1980s and the Bloc QuÃ©bÃ©cois in every election since 1993, with the single exception of 2011, when the riding was swept up in the NDPâs orange wave. The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history of Canadian provinces and demographic data. A road classification system designates streets into different groups or classes according to the type of service each group is intended to provide. That would make this an NDP gain and sweep of the downtown region. What does the future for the NDP under Jagmeet Singh look like? Outside the GTA, there are some key ridings the Conservatives won in 2011 that theyâd probably need to win again in 2019 in order to form a majority government. There are 338 federal ridings in Canada and voters will be going to the polls in each on Oct. 21, 2019. For the Toronto by-election in 2020, people in both York Centre and Toronto Centre are heading to the polls but the deadline to vote by mail is fast approaching. Ward 13 Councillor Office. It was a close race in 2015, when the Liberalsâ Nick Whalen beat Harris by just 1.4 percentage points â a rare win for the Liberals in a riding that mostly has voted Conservative in the past. If the Bloc QuÃ©bÃ©cois wins BeloeilâChambly, it will accomplish something it hasnât since 2008 â by sending its leader to the House of Commons. St. Johnâs East, Brampton East, Davenport, Essex, Hamilton EastâStoney Creek, LondonâFanshawe, ChurchillâKeewatinook Aski, ElmwoodâTranscona, ReginaâLewvan, SurreyâNewton, KingsâHants, SydneyâVictoria, Glengarry-Prescott-Russell, KanataâCarleton, OrlÃ©ans, PeterboroughâKawartha, Cambridge, Kitchener SouthâHespeler, KildonanâSt. © Election Prediction Project, 1999-2018 - Email Webmaster. The party is hopeful it can win some of them back. Our York-City Centre coverage area is hosting three 100 Debates events, including Eglinton-Lawrence, York Centre and Toronto-St. Paul's. But Guelph has been one of the best ridings in the country for the Greens in recent years and the Ontario provincial wing of the party capitalized on that base in the 2018 election, sending their leader Mike Schreiner to Queenâs Park. The judgment of those voters on the governmentâs approach to reconciliation likely will decide this fall whether the Liberals are able to take a seat theyâve only won twice over the last 65 years. To defeat Justin Trudeauâs Liberals, Scheer will need to win where Ford won last year â while also distancing himself from the unpopular premier. MarkhamâStouffville was already setting up to be a competitive race between the Liberals and Conservatives. If the Liberals can attract that NDP vote, they could leapfrog the Conservatives into first place. The two will be facing off again in this riding, one of many in the Halton and Peel regions that will play a big role in deciding if any party can win a majority government. If the New Democrats are going to reconnect with their labour base, then this riding â in which about 16 per cent of the labour force works in manufacturing â should be high on their list. Since then, the seat has been held at one time or another by the Bloc QuÃ©bÃ©cois, Conservatives, New Democrats and Liberals. The New Democrats in Regina and Saskatoon were hamstrung for years by rural-urban ridings that combined parts of the cities with wide sections of conservative-voting rural areas, but that changed in 2015 when the two cities got urban ridings of their own. Now that Brison isnât on the ballot, will KingsâHants return to its blue roots? New Democrats say theyâre optimistic about the odds of some of their former MPs winning back the seats they lost four years ago. Whoever wins here probably will win the election. The Bloc will be trying to hold onto Mirabel, a seat it has won in every election since its founding, with the exception of the NDPâs 2011 breakthrough. And which party is best positioned to take the most advantage of the NDPâs struggles? Thatâs part of the reason why that controversial Saudi LAV deal is a particularly thorny issue for both parties â those LAVs are built in LondonâFanshawe. The riding, won by the Conservatives in 2011, went back to the Liberals in 2015 but it should be high on the Conservativesâ target list this year.